Campaigns heat up in Langley, Cloverdale as by-election is announced
John Aldag, the Liberal Member of Parliament for Cloverdale-Langley City, has announced he is stepping down to run for the BC New Democratic Party after serving two terms with the Liberal Party of Canada (2015-2019, 2021-2024).
This means that tension is already ramping up 6 months before the by-election, scheduled for a date before January 4th, 2025. This may seem like a while in advance, but for the political candidates running in the Cloverdale-Langley City district, this is going to be one of the major tipping points that will decide whether disaster is spelled out for the liberals or if they can pull off a win and improve favourability in the polls.
Normally, a by-election would be a small change that would only affect that region, but after seeing the results of the huge loss the Liberal party had during the election in Toronto-St. Pauls, it’s likely that another lost seat for the Liberals in a previously liberal-held riding would make chances of the Liberals pulling a victory in the elections next year in October slim.
So what else is at stake in this election?
First of all, the previous conservative candidate, Tamara Jansen, is likely going to be the candidate Conservatives will choose to run in the by-election, as she has already announced that she plans to run again. Tamara had previously held the riding, winning in 2019 and defeating John Aldag by just over 1,000 votes.
When Trudeau called a snap election in 2021, Aldag regained his seat from Tamara, also winning by just over 1,000 votes, making it a very close battle between the Conservatives and Liberals, with the NDP placing a more distant third in both elections.
However, these results have not always been positive for the Liberals in that area. Past results from 2011 and before that, when the riding was created from three neighbouring ridings - Fleetwood-Port Kells, Langley-South Surrey-White Rock, and Langley, all majority conservative ridings, the area had not seen a Liberal representative since the 70’s in the riding of Fraser Valley East, making almost 50 years without Liberals having any members elected in the region.
This could be for a number of reasons, the first being his involvement in the community, working with Parks Canada for over 30 years, part of that being the administrator for Fort Langley National Historic Site. Another likely reason is the increase in different population demographics in the region, with the population increasing by over 30 percent from 2011 to 2021.
These increases are shown significantly with the increase of the South Asian, Southeast Asian, East Asian and African pan-ethnic groups in the region, all doubling from 2011 to 2021, while the European pan-ethnic group decreased from 72,000 to 68,000, which also contributed to the rise in first-generation families moving to the Cloverdale-Langley City region, and a decrease in third-generation families.
Census 2016 Generation Results:
Census 2021 Generation Results:
While demographics do not determine political intent in any way, polling results have shown that certain pan-ethnic groups have a higher percentage of voters choosing to vote in a certain way, favouring the Liberal party more.
However, that favour is not showing up in the polls, but that’s not just Langley. The Conservatives have been making huge gains across Canada and have kept the lead for over a year after Pierre Poilievre stepped into the role as the Leader of the Opposition.
These three charts sum it all up.
National Polls, July 16th, 2024: Conservatives Lead Liberals by 18 percent
British Columbian Polls: Conservatives Lead Liberals by 19 percent
Cloverdale-Langley City Polls: Conservatives Lead Liberals by 21 percent
Notice the outlier in the Cloverdale-Langley City polls- it is missing both the Green Party and the People’s Party, which have both gained around 5 percent of the votes in previous elections, meaning those voters could tip the scale.
However this is likely to not make a huge impact, as the Green party voters will likely take away from the NDP and Liberals, and the PPC will likely take votes away from the Conservatives.
You may notice the downwards trajectory of the Conservatives on all three charts, however that is largely because the huge rise scared some voters, and the results needed to balance out, as Conservatives saw a huge jump in May after Canada’s budget was announced, which likely caused the shift.
If, however, this trend does continue for the Conservatives, this might be a much closer battle than the Conservatives are hoping for. But the Liberals are going to need a strong candidate to run against likely candidate for the Conservatives Tamara Jensen, considering her not only being a former MP but a Conservative one.
No parties have officially named their candidate for the Cloverdale-Langley City by-election.